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WAFA vs Medeama — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
5 – 4
Medeama
Medeama
D. Lomotey 84', 45', 36', 6'
G. Agbevor 31'
J. Blay 87'
R. Nortey 70', 67'
A. Mohammed 61' (pen)
1/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA48%
×Draw28%
Medeama24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.31
Medeama
0.84

WAFA creates 56% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 110 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Medeama
0.85

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Medeama
1.19

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Medeama+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Medeama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
76%
WAFA or Medeama
72%
Draw or Medeama
52%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
22%
Medeama wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
73%
WAFA 2+ goals
38%
WAFA 3+ goals
14%
Medeama 1+ goals
57%
Medeama 2+ goals
21%
Medeama 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
67%
Medeama (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Medeama away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Medeama defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Medeama attack 0.85 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

WAFA scores more
48%
level
28%
Medeama scores more
24%

WAFA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
D. Lomotey
31'
G. Agbevor
36'
D. Lomotey
37'
F. Amankwah← F. Amankwah
45'
D. Lomotey
61'
A. MohammedPenalty
67'
R. Nortey
70'
R. Nortey
84'
D. Lomotey
87'
J. Blay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WAFA 5 – 4 Medeama

WAFA beat Medeama 5-4 in Premier League on January 3, 2021.

Goals: D. Lomotey (6', 36', 45', 84'), G. Agbevor (31'), A. Mohammed (61' pen), R. Nortey (67', 70'), J. Blay (87').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.