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Medeama vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Medeama
Medeama
FT
1 – 2
WAFA
WAFA
P. Agyemang 2'
Unknown 90+5'
E. Asubonteng 53'
5/12/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Akoon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Medeama57%
×Draw27%
WAFA16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Medeama
1.41
WAFA
0.61

Medeama creates 131% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 42 away

creates per match

Medeama
1.44
WAFA
0.74

allows per match

Medeama
0.49
WAFA
1.38

finishing

Medeama+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Medeama ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Medeama or draw
84%
Medeama or WAFA
73%
Draw or WAFA
43%

Winning margin

Medeama wins by 2+
29%
WAFA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Medeama 1+ goals
76%
Medeama 2+ goals
41%
Medeama 3+ goals
17%
WAFA 1+ goals
46%
WAFA 2+ goals
13%
WAFA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Medeama (draw refunded)
78%
WAFA (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Medeama at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.49 · 108 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Medeama attack 1.44 + WAFA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

WAFA attack 0.74 + Medeama defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Medeama scores more
57%
level
27%
WAFA scores more
16%

Medeama at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Medeama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
P. Agyemang
35'
53'
E. Asubonteng
64'
71'
77'
90'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Medeama vs WAFA

WAFA beat Medeama 2-1 in Premier League on May 12, 2021.

Goals: P. Agyemang (2'), E. Asubonteng (53'), ? (90+5').

The match was played at Akoon Park in Tarkwa.