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WAFA vs Bibiani Gold Stars — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
J. Tedeku 2'
1/30/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA54%
×Draw27%
Bibiani Gold Stars19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.47
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.76

WAFA creates 93% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 84 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Bibiani Gold Stars
0.70

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Bibiani Gold Stars
1.50

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Bibiani Gold Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
81%
WAFA or Bibiani Gold Stars
73%
Draw or Bibiani Gold Stars
46%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
28%
Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
77%
WAFA 2+ goals
43%
WAFA 3+ goals
18%
Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
53%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
18%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
74%
Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Bibiani Gold Stars away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.50 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 0.70 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

WAFA scores more
54%
level
27%
Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
19%

WAFA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
J. Tedeku
55'
R. Darko
64'
66'
M. Zuo← M. Zuo
76'
M. Ayidem← M. Ayidem
86'
F. Boateng← F. Boateng
86'
G. Owusu← G. Owusu
88'
E. Intori← E. Intori
90+6'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAFA vs Bibiani Gold Stars

WAFA beat Bibiani Gold Stars 1-0 in Premier League on January 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Tedeku (2').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.