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Bibiani Gold Stars vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
Y. Dzia Ull Haqq 87'
K. Boafo 30'
P. Opoku Agyemang 14'
E. Ofori Agyemang 90+4', 70'
E. Intori 71'
M. Owusu 63' (pen)
6/5/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars56%
×Draw26%
WAFA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.48
WAFA
0.68

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 118% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
WAFA
0.74

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
WAFA
1.38

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
83%
Bibiani Gold Stars or WAFA
74%
Draw or WAFA
44%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
29%
WAFA wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
77%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
43%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
19%
WAFA 1+ goals
49%
WAFA 2+ goals
15%
WAFA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
77%
WAFA (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + WAFA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

WAFA attack 0.74 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
56%
level
26%
WAFA scores more
17%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
P. Opoku Agyemang
30'
K. Boafo
63'
M. OwusuPenalty
70'
E. Ofori Agyemang
71'
E. Intori
87'
Y. Dzia Ull Haqq
90+4'
E. Ofori Agyemang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 3–4 WAFA

WAFA beat Bibiani Gold Stars 4-3 in Premier League on June 5, 2022.

Goals: P. Opoku Agyemang (14'), K. Boafo (30'), M. Owusu (63' pen), E. Ofori Agyemang (70', 90+4'), E. Intori (71'), Y. Dzia Ull Haqq (87').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.