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WAFA vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

WAFA
WAFA
FT
1 – 0
Bechem United
Bechem United
L. Agyekum 43'
4/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

WAFA53%
×Draw26%
Bechem United21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WAFA
1.50
Bechem United
0.82

WAFA creates 83% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 109 away

creates per match

WAFA
1.44
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

WAFA
0.83
Bechem United
1.56

finishing

WAFA+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WAFA ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

WAFA or draw
79%
WAFA or Bechem United
74%
Draw or Bechem United
47%

Winning margin

WAFA wins by 2+
27%
Bechem United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

WAFA 1+ goals
78%
WAFA 2+ goals
44%
WAFA 3+ goals
19%
Bechem United 1+ goals
56%
Bechem United 2+ goals
20%
Bechem United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

WAFA (draw refunded)
72%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WAFA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.56 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WAFA attack 1.44 + Bechem United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bechem United attack 0.82 + WAFA defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

WAFA scores more
53%
level
26%
Bechem United scores more
21%

WAFA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "WAFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
L. Agyekum
88'
S. Agyepong← S. Agyepong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WAFA vs Bechem United

WAFA beat Bechem United 1-0 in Premier League on April 11, 2021.

Goals: L. Agyekum (43').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.