Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bechem United vs WAFA — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
1 – 0
WAFA
WAFA
H. Konkoni 28'
11/21/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bechem United57%
×Draw28%
WAFA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.37
WAFA
0.57

Bechem United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
WAFA
0.74

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
WAFA
1.38

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
WAFA+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

WAFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
85%
Bechem United or WAFA
72%
Draw or WAFA
43%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
28%
WAFA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
75%
Bechem United 2+ goals
40%
Bechem United 3+ goals
16%
WAFA 1+ goals
43%
WAFA 2+ goals
11%
WAFA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
79%
WAFA (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

WAFA away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + WAFA defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

WAFA attack 0.74 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bechem United scores more
57%
level
28%
WAFA scores more
15%

Bechem United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
C. Bosompem
28'
H. Konkoni
56'
E. Asante
56'
F. Amankwah
59'
E. Asamany← E. Asamany
61'
C. Duodo← C. Duodo
68'
P. Adu Kwabena← P. Adu Kwabena
73'
K. Boakye Yiadom← K. Boakye Yiadom
84'
E. Asubonteng← E. Asubonteng

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bechem United 1–0 WAFA

Bechem United beat WAFA 1-0 in Premier League on November 21, 2020.

Goals: H. Konkoni (28').

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.