Wadi Degla 0–1 Tanta SC: Result & Stats

Wadi Degla

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tanta SC

9/22/2019

Premier League · Round 1Petrosport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wadi Degla50%

×Draw27%

Tanta SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wadi DeglaExpected goals in this matchTanta SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.89

Wadi Degla

1.45

Tanta SC

0.89

Wadi Degla creates 63% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

0.96

creates per match

0.53

1.25

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Wadi Degla

0.96

Tanta SC

0.53

allows per match

Wadi Degla

1.25

Tanta SC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Tanta SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Tanta SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw

77%

Wadi Degla or Tanta SC

73%

Draw or Tanta SC

50%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+

25%

Tanta SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals

77%

Wadi Degla 2+ goals

42%

Wadi Degla 3+ goals

18%

Tanta SC 1+ goals

59%

Tanta SC 2+ goals

22%

Tanta SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)

68%

Tanta SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Tanta SC away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 0.96 + Tanta SC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.45

Tanta SC attack 0.53 + Wadi Degla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wadi Degla scores more

50%

level

27%

Tanta SC scores more

23%

Wadi Degla at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff