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Tanta SC vs Wadi Degla — Premier League 2018

Tanta SC
Tanta SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
3/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Tanta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tanta SC28%
×Draw29%
Wadi Degla44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanta SC
0.93
Wadi Degla
1.25

Wadi Degla creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 67 away

creates per match

Tanta SC
0.76
Wadi Degla
1.21

allows per match

Tanta SC
1.29
Wadi Degla
1.10

finishing

Tanta SC+0.00on par
Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanta SC ↓

Wadi Degla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tanta SC or draw
56%
Tanta SC or Wadi Degla
71%
Draw or Wadi Degla
72%

Winning margin

Tanta SC wins by 2+
10%
Wadi Degla wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tanta SC 1+ goals
61%
Tanta SC 2+ goals
24%
Tanta SC 3+ goals
7%
Wadi Degla 1+ goals
71%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
36%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tanta SC (draw refunded)
39%
Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanta SC at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Wadi Degla away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanta SC attack 0.76 + Wadi Degla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Wadi Degla attack 1.21 + Tanta SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tanta SC scores more
28%
level
29%
Wadi Degla scores more
44%

Wadi Degla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tanta SC vs Wadi Degla

Tanta SC and Wadi Degla drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 11, 2020.

The match was played at Tanta Stadium in Tanta.