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Wadi Degla vs Misr EL Makasa — Premier League 2018

Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
7/5/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wadi Degla38%
×Draw29%
Misr EL Makasa33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wadi Degla
1.17
Misr EL Makasa
1.06

Wadi Degla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wadi Degla
0.96
Misr EL Makasa
0.87

allows per match

Wadi Degla
1.25
Misr EL Makasa
1.37

finishing

Wadi Degla+0.00on par
Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wadi Degla ↓

Misr EL Makasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wadi Degla or draw
67%
Wadi Degla or Misr EL Makasa
71%
Draw or Misr EL Makasa
62%

Winning margin

Wadi Degla wins by 2+
16%
Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wadi Degla 1+ goals
69%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
33%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
11%
Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
65%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
29%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
54%
Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wadi Degla at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.25 · 68 matches

Misr EL Makasa away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wadi Degla attack 0.96 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.87 + Wadi Degla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wadi Degla scores more
38%
level
29%
Misr EL Makasa scores more
33%

Wadi Degla at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wadi Degla vs Misr EL Makasa

Wadi Degla and Misr EL Makasa drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.