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Misr EL Makasa vs Wadi Degla — Premier League 2018

Misr EL Makasa
Misr EL Makasa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wadi Degla
Wadi Degla
2/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Misr EL Makasa30%
×Draw28%
Wadi Degla42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Misr EL Makasa
1.02
Wadi Degla
1.25

Wadi Degla creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Misr EL Makasa
0.94
Wadi Degla
1.21

allows per match

Misr EL Makasa
1.28
Wadi Degla
1.10

finishing

Misr EL Makasa+0.00on par
Wadi Degla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Misr EL Makasa ↓

Wadi Degla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Misr EL Makasa or draw
58%
Misr EL Makasa or Wadi Degla
72%
Draw or Wadi Degla
70%

Winning margin

Misr EL Makasa wins by 2+
11%
Wadi Degla wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Misr EL Makasa 1+ goals
64%
Misr EL Makasa 2+ goals
27%
Misr EL Makasa 3+ goals
8%
Wadi Degla 1+ goals
71%
Wadi Degla 2+ goals
36%
Wadi Degla 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Misr EL Makasa (draw refunded)
42%
Wadi Degla (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Misr EL Makasa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Wadi Degla away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Misr EL Makasa attack 0.94 + Wadi Degla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Wadi Degla attack 1.21 + Misr EL Makasa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Misr EL Makasa scores more
30%
level
28%
Wadi Degla scores more
42%

Wadi Degla at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wadi Degla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Misr EL Makasa 3–1 Wadi Degla

Misr EL Makasa beat Wadi Degla 3-1 in Premier League on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.