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Wad Nubawi vs Al Merreikh — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
0 – 1
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
6/14/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 18Jebel Aulia Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi21%
×Draw30%
Al Merreikh49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
0.71
Al Merreikh
1.23

Al Merreikh creates 73% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 65 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Merreikh
1.68

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Merreikh
0.62

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
51%
Wad Nubawi or Al Merreikh
70%
Draw or Al Merreikh
79%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
6%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
51%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
16%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
4%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
71%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
35%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
31%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.62 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Al Merreikh defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Al Merreikh attack 1.68 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
21%
level
30%
Al Merreikh scores more
49%

Al Merreikh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Wad Nubawi 0–1 Al Merreikh

Al Merreikh beat Wad Nubawi 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Jebel Aulia Stadium in Jabal Awliya.