Al Merreikh 2–1 Wad Nubawi: Result & Stats

Al Merreikh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wad Nubawi

12/25/2022

Sudani Premier League · Round 16Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Merreikh60%

×Draw26%

Wad Nubawi14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al MerreikhExpected goals in this matchWad Nubawi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.57

Al Merreikh

1.51

Wad Nubawi

0.57

Al Merreikh creates 165% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

1.95

creates per match

0.71

0.44

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Merreikh

1.95

Wad Nubawi

0.71

allows per match

Al Merreikh

0.44

Wad Nubawi

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Merreikh ↓

Wad Nubawi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Merreikh or draw

86%

Al Merreikh or Wad Nubawi

74%

Draw or Wad Nubawi

40%

Winning margin

Al Merreikh wins by 2+

32%

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al Merreikh 1+ goals

78%

Al Merreikh 2+ goals

44%

Al Merreikh 3+ goals

19%

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals

43%

Wad Nubawi 2+ goals

11%

Wad Nubawi 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Al Merreikh (draw refunded)

81%

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Merreikh at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.44 · 78 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Merreikh attack 1.95 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Al Merreikh defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Al Merreikh scores more

60%

level

26%

Wad Nubawi scores more

14%

Al Merreikh at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff