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Wad Nubawi vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2025

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
FT
1 – 2
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
7/2/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 23Altahrir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wad Nubawi27%
×Draw35%
Al Hilal Port Sudan37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
0.70
Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.88

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.50
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.75
Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.90

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–118%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
63%
Wad Nubawi or Al Hilal Port Sudan
65%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
73%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
8%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
50%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
16%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
3%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
59%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
22%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
42%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.50 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
27%
level
35%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
37%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Nubawi vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Wad Nubawi 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Altahrir Stadium in Khartoum North.