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Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
FT
1 – 1
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
1/2/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan37%
×Draw37%
Wad Nubawi26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.83
Wad Nubawi
0.65

Al Hilal Port Sudan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.00
Wad Nubawi
0.67

allows per match

Al Hilal Port Sudan
0.62
Wad Nubawi
0.67

finishing

Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Port Sudan ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–115%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Hilal Port Sudan or draw
74%
Al Hilal Port Sudan or Wad Nubawi
63%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
63%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
12%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
56%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
20%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
5%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
48%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
14%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
58%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Port Sudan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.00 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Wad Nubawi attack 0.67 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
37%
level
37%
Wad Nubawi scores more
26%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Port Sudan vs Wad Nubawi

Al Hilal Port Sudan and Wad Nubawi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 2, 2023.

The match was played at Port Sudan Stadium in Port Sudan.