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Wad Nubawi vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
CANC
00:00
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
4/13/2023Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Wad Nubawi39%
×Draw33%
Al Ahli Khartoum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Nubawi
0.97
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.76

Wad Nubawi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 81 away

creates per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Wad Nubawi
0.79
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Nubawi ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wad Nubawi or draw
73%
Wad Nubawi or Al Ahli Khartoum
67%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
61%

Winning margin

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
15%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
62%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
25%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
7%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
53%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
18%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
59%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Nubawi at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.79 · 29 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Nubawi attack 0.79 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Wad Nubawi defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wad Nubawi scores more
39%
level
33%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
27%

Wad Nubawi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wad Nubawi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wad Nubawi host Al Ahli Khartoum

April 13, 2023: Wad Nubawi take on Al Ahli Khartoum in Sudani Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.