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Al Ahli Khartoum vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
1 – 1
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
12/5/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 12Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum41%
×Draw31%
Wad Nubawi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.10
Wad Nubawi
0.85

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 29% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Wad Nubawi
0.71

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Wad Nubawi
1.07

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
72%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Wad Nubawi
69%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
59%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
17%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
67%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
30%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
10%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
57%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
21%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
60%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
41%
level
31%
Wad Nubawi scores more
28%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Khartoum vs Wad Nubawi

Al Ahli Khartoum and Wad Nubawi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on December 5, 2022.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.