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Wad Hashim Sennar vs Hay Al Arab — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
FT
1 – 2
Hay Al Arab
Hay Al Arab
6/29/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Relegation Round - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar43%
×Draw32%
Hay Al Arab25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.06
Hay Al Arab
0.74

Wad Hashim Sennar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 76 away

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.00
Hay Al Arab
0.82

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
0.67
Hay Al Arab
1.12

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par
Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Hay Al Arab →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw
75%
Wad Hashim Sennar or Hay Al Arab
68%
Draw or Hay Al Arab
57%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
17%
Hay Al Arab wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
65%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
29%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
9%
Hay Al Arab 1+ goals
52%
Hay Al Arab 2+ goals
17%
Hay Al Arab 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
63%
Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Hay Al Arab attack 0.82 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
43%
level
32%
Hay Al Arab scores more
25%

Wad Hashim Sennar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wad Hashim Sennar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Hashim Sennar vs Hay Al Arab

Hay Al Arab beat Wad Hashim Sennar 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on June 29, 2019.