Hay Al Arab 1–0 Wad Hashim Sennar: Result & Stats

Hay Al Arab

FT

1 – 0

Wad Hashim Sennar

1/19/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 8Port Sudan Stadium (Port Sudan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hay Al Arab48%

×Draw30%

Wad Hashim Sennar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hay Al ArabExpected goals in this matchWad Hashim Sennar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.74

Hay Al Arab

1.25

Wad Hashim Sennar

0.74

Hay Al Arab creates 69% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

0.36

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Hay Al Arab

1.22

Wad Hashim Sennar

0.36

allows per match

Hay Al Arab

1.11

Wad Hashim Sennar

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Arab ↓

Wad Hashim Sennar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Hay Al Arab or draw

78%

Hay Al Arab or Wad Hashim Sennar

70%

Draw or Wad Hashim Sennar

52%

Winning margin

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

22%

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

71%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

36%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

13%

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals

52%

Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals

17%

Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

69%

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Arab at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Wad Hashim Sennar away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Arab attack 1.22 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 0.36 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hay Al Arab scores more

48%

level

30%

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more

22%

Hay Al Arab at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hay Al Arab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff