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Wad Hashim Sennar vs Al Shorta — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
FT
2 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
1/26/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Sennar Stadium (Sennar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar50%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.33
Al Shorta
0.78

Wad Hashim Sennar creates 71% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 83 away

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.00
Al Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
0.67
Al Shorta
1.67

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw
78%
Wad Hashim Sennar or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
50%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
24%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
74%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
38%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
15%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
54%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
18%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
69%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Al Shorta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Shorta attack 0.89 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
50%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
22%

Wad Hashim Sennar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wad Hashim Sennar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Wad Hashim Sennar 2–1 Al Shorta

Wad Hashim Sennar beat Al Shorta 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sennar Stadium (Sennar).