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Al Shorta vs Wad Hashim Sennar — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
1 – 0
Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
11/30/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Al-Gadarf Stadium (Al-Gadarf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Shorta47%
×Draw31%
Wad Hashim Sennar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.15
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.67

Al Shorta creates 72% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.01
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.36

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.97
Wad Hashim Sennar
1.29

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Wad Hashim Sennar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
79%
Al Shorta or Wad Hashim Sennar
69%
Draw or Wad Hashim Sennar
53%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
20%
Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
68%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
32%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
11%
Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
49%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
15%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
69%
Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Wad Hashim Sennar away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 0.36 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Shorta scores more
47%
level
31%
Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
21%

Al Shorta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shorta vs Wad Hashim Sennar

Al Shorta beat Wad Hashim Sennar 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on November 30, 2018.

The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium (Al-Gadarf).