Wad Hashim Sennar 0–1 Al Hilal Omdurman

Wad Hashim Sennar

FT

0 – 1

Al Hilal Omdurman

3/28/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 14Sennar Stadium (Sennar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar24%

×Draw29%

Al Hilal Omdurman47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wad Hashim SennarExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Omdurman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.27

Wad Hashim Sennar

0.81

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.27

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 57% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 64 away

1.00

creates per match

1.88

0.67

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar

1.00

Al Hilal Omdurman

1.88

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar

0.67

Al Hilal Omdurman

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw

53%

Wad Hashim Sennar or Al Hilal Omdurman

71%

Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman

76%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+

7%

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals

56%

Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals

19%

Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals

5%

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals

72%

Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals

36%

Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)

33%

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more

24%

level

29%

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more

47%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff