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Al Hilal Omdurman vs Wad Hashim Sennar — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
FT
5 – 0
Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
1/8/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Hilal Omdurman75%
×Draw19%
Wad Hashim Sennar6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Omdurman
1.91
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.38

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 403% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
2.53
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.36

allows per match

Al Hilal Omdurman
0.39
Wad Hashim Sennar
1.29

finishing

Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par
Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Omdurman ↓

Wad Hashim Sennar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–17%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Hilal Omdurman or draw
94%
Al Hilal Omdurman or Wad Hashim Sennar
81%
Draw or Wad Hashim Sennar
25%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
47%
Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
85%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
57%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
30%
Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
32%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
6%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
92%
Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Omdurman at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.39 · 77 matches

Wad Hashim Sennar away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 2.53 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 0.36 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.39 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
75%
level
19%
Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
6%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hilal Omdurman vs Wad Hashim Sennar

Al Hilal Omdurman beat Wad Hashim Sennar 5-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 8, 2019.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium (Omdurman (Umm Durman)).