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Wad Hashim Sennar vs Al Ahly Shendi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
FT
0 – 0
Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
12/26/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Sennar Stadium (Sennar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wad Hashim Sennar40%
×Draw34%
Al Ahly Shendi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wad Hashim Sennar
0.96
Al Ahly Shendi
0.72

Wad Hashim Sennar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 75 away

creates per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
1.00
Al Ahly Shendi
0.76

allows per match

Wad Hashim Sennar
0.67
Al Ahly Shendi
0.91

finishing

Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par
Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wad Hashim Sennar ↓

Al Ahly Shendi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Wad Hashim Sennar or draw
74%
Wad Hashim Sennar or Al Ahly Shendi
66%
Draw or Al Ahly Shendi
60%

Winning margin

Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
15%
Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
62%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
25%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
7%
Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
51%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
16%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
60%
Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wad Hashim Sennar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Ahly Shendi away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 1.00 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al Ahly Shendi attack 0.76 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
40%
level
34%
Al Ahly Shendi scores more
26%

Wad Hashim Sennar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wad Hashim Sennar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wad Hashim Sennar vs Al Ahly Shendi

Wad Hashim Sennar and Al Ahly Shendi drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 26, 2018.

The match was played at Sennar Stadium (Sennar).