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Al Ahly Shendi vs Wad Hashim Sennar — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahly Shendi
Al Ahly Shendi
FT
3 – 0
Wad Hashim Sennar
Wad Hashim Sennar
2/9/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 11Shandi Stadium (Shendi (Shandi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Ahly Shendi50%
×Draw31%
Wad Hashim Sennar20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahly Shendi
1.20
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.64

Al Ahly Shendi creates 88% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Ahly Shendi
1.11
Wad Hashim Sennar
0.36

allows per match

Al Ahly Shendi
0.91
Wad Hashim Sennar
1.29

finishing

Al Ahly Shendi+0.00on par
Wad Hashim Sennar+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly Shendi ↓

Wad Hashim Sennar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Ahly Shendi or draw
80%
Al Ahly Shendi or Wad Hashim Sennar
69%
Draw or Wad Hashim Sennar
50%

Winning margin

Al Ahly Shendi wins by 2+
22%
Wad Hashim Sennar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Ahly Shendi 1+ goals
70%
Al Ahly Shendi 2+ goals
34%
Al Ahly Shendi 3+ goals
12%
Wad Hashim Sennar 1+ goals
47%
Wad Hashim Sennar 2+ goals
14%
Wad Hashim Sennar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly Shendi (draw refunded)
72%
Wad Hashim Sennar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly Shendi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.91 · 75 matches

Wad Hashim Sennar away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly Shendi attack 1.11 + Wad Hashim Sennar defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Wad Hashim Sennar attack 0.36 + Al Ahly Shendi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Ahly Shendi scores more
50%
level
31%
Wad Hashim Sennar scores more
20%

Al Ahly Shendi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Ahly Shendi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahly Shendi vs Wad Hashim Sennar

Al Ahly Shendi beat Wad Hashim Sennar 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Shandi Stadium (Shendi (Shandi)).