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IK Frej vs IFK Varnamo — Superettan 2018

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
11/10/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 30Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IK Frej41%
×Draw24%
IFK Varnamo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.61
IFK Varnamo
1.46

IK Frej creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 39 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.40
IFK Varnamo
1.05

allows per match

IK Frej
1.87
IFK Varnamo
1.82

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

IFK Varnamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
65%
IK Frej or IFK Varnamo
76%
Draw or IFK Varnamo
59%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
21%
IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
80%
IK Frej 2+ goals
48%
IK Frej 3+ goals
22%
IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
77%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
43%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
54%
IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

IK Frej scores more
41%
level
24%
IFK Varnamo scores more
35%

IK Frej at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IK Frej vs IFK Varnamo

IK Frej beat IFK Varnamo 1-0 in Superettan on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Vikingavallen (Täby).