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IFK Varnamo vs IK Frej — Superettan 2018

IFK Varnamo
IFK Varnamo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
IK Frej
IK Frej
6/16/2018SuperettanSuperettan · Round 13Finnvedsvallen (Värnamo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Varnamo46%
×Draw25%
IK Frej29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Varnamo
1.58
IK Frej
1.21

IFK Varnamo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

IFK Varnamo
1.32
IK Frej
1.30

allows per match

IFK Varnamo
1.11
IK Frej
1.83

finishing

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Varnamo ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IFK Varnamo or draw
71%
IFK Varnamo or IK Frej
75%
Draw or IK Frej
54%

Winning margin

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+
23%
IK Frej wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals
79%
IFK Varnamo 2+ goals
47%
IFK Varnamo 3+ goals
21%
IK Frej 1+ goals
70%
IK Frej 2+ goals
34%
IK Frej 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)
61%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Varnamo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Varnamo attack 1.32 + IK Frej defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

IK Frej attack 1.30 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

IFK Varnamo scores more
46%
level
25%
IK Frej scores more
29%

IFK Varnamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "IFK Varnamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: IFK Varnamo vs IK Frej

IK Frej beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 in Superettan on June 16, 2018.

The match was played at Finnvedsvallen (Värnamo).