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Wacker Nordhausen vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SC Freital
SC Freital
11/6/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen30%
×Draw24%
SC Freital46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Nordhausen
1.33
SC Freital
1.68

SC Freital creates 26% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 62 away

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.22
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.65
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw
54%
Wacker Nordhausen or SC Freital
76%
Draw or SC Freital
70%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
13%
SC Freital wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
74%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
38%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
15%
SC Freital 1+ goals
81%
SC Freital 2+ goals
50%
SC Freital 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
40%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more
30%
level
24%
SC Freital scores more
46%

SC Freital at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Nordhausen vs SC Freital

Wacker Nordhausen beat SC Freital 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark in Nordhausen.