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SC Freital vs Wacker Nordhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

SC Freital
SC Freital
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
4/29/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 29SpA Hainsberg Rasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SC Freital55%
×Draw23%
Wacker Nordhausen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Freital
1.88
Wacker Nordhausen
1.10

SC Freital creates 71% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 35 away

creates per match

SC Freital
1.56
Wacker Nordhausen
1.03

allows per match

SC Freital
1.18
Wacker Nordhausen
2.20

finishing

SC Freital+0.00on par
Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freital ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SC Freital or draw
78%
SC Freital or Wacker Nordhausen
77%
Draw or Wacker Nordhausen
45%

Winning margin

SC Freital wins by 2+
32%
Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

SC Freital 1+ goals
85%
SC Freital 2+ goals
56%
SC Freital 3+ goals
29%
Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
67%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
30%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SC Freital (draw refunded)
72%
Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freital at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 62 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freital attack 1.56 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + SC Freital defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SC Freital scores more
55%
level
23%
Wacker Nordhausen scores more
22%

SC Freital at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SC Freital will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Freital vs Wacker Nordhausen

SC Freital beat Wacker Nordhausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at SpA Hainsberg Rasenplatz in Freital.