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Wacker Nordhausen vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Wacker Nordhausen
Wacker Nordhausen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
4/6/2022Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 22Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wacker Nordhausen42%
×Draw23%
Einheit Wernigerode34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Nordhausen
1.71
Einheit Wernigerode
1.52

Wacker Nordhausen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 77 away

creates per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.22
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Wacker Nordhausen
1.65
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Nordhausen ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wacker Nordhausen or draw
66%
Wacker Nordhausen or Einheit Wernigerode
77%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
58%

Winning margin

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+
22%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals
82%
Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals
51%
Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals
24%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
78%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
45%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)
55%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Nordhausen at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.22 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wacker Nordhausen scores more
42%
level
23%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
34%

Wacker Nordhausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wacker Nordhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Wacker Nordhausen 2–2 Einheit Wernigerode

Wacker Nordhausen and Einheit Wernigerode drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 6, 2022.

The match was played at Albert-Kuntz-Sportpark in Nordhausen.