Einheit Wernigerode 2–2 Wacker Nordhausen

Einheit Wernigerode

FT

2 – 2

Wacker Nordhausen

8/18/2021

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 3Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode53%

×Draw21%

Wacker Nordhausen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit WernigerodeExpected goals in this matchWacker Nordhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.48

Einheit Wernigerode

2.16

Wacker Nordhausen

1.48

Einheit Wernigerode creates 46% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 35 away

2.12

creates per match

1.03

1.92

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode

2.12

Wacker Nordhausen

1.03

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode

1.92

Wacker Nordhausen

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Wacker Nordhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

Wacker Nordhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw

74%

Einheit Wernigerode or Wacker Nordhausen

79%

Draw or Wacker Nordhausen

47%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

32%

Wacker Nordhausen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

88%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

63%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

36%

Wacker Nordhausen 1+ goals

77%

Wacker Nordhausen 2+ goals

43%

Wacker Nordhausen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

67%

Wacker Nordhausen (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

Wacker Nordhausen away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + Wacker Nordhausen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.16

Wacker Nordhausen attack 1.03 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

53%

level

21%

Wacker Nordhausen scores more

26%

Einheit Wernigerode at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Einheit Wernigerode will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff