Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2–0 Prutz / Serfaus

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

FT

2 – 0

Prutz / Serfaus

9/3/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 7Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)51%

×Draw22%

Prutz / Serfaus27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)Expected goals in this matchPrutz / Serfaus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.45

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

2.04

Prutz / Serfaus

1.45

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.80

creates per match

1.63

1.27

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.80

Prutz / Serfaus

1.63

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.27

Prutz / Serfaus

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) ↓

Prutz / Serfaus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or draw

73%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or Prutz / Serfaus

78%

Draw or Prutz / Serfaus

49%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+

30%

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals

87%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals

60%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals

33%

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals

77%

Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals

42%

Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)

65%

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Prutz / Serfaus away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.80 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Prutz / Serfaus attack 1.63 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more

51%

level

22%

Prutz / Serfaus scores more

27%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wacker Innsbruck (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff