Prutz / Serfaus 0–1 Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

Prutz / Serfaus

FT

0 – 1

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

4/29/2023

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 22Sportplatz Prutz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Prutz / Serfaus50%

×Draw22%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Prutz / SerfausExpected goals in this matchWacker Innsbruck (Am)

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.45

Prutz / Serfaus

2.00

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.45

Prutz / Serfaus creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

2.20

creates per match

1.53

1.37

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Prutz / Serfaus

2.20

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.53

allows per match

Prutz / Serfaus

1.37

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prutz / Serfaus+0.00on par

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prutz / Serfaus ↓

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Prutz / Serfaus or draw

72%

Prutz / Serfaus or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

78%

Draw or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

50%

Winning margin

Prutz / Serfaus wins by 2+

29%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Prutz / Serfaus 1+ goals

86%

Prutz / Serfaus 2+ goals

59%

Prutz / Serfaus 3+ goals

32%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals

77%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals

42%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Prutz / Serfaus (draw refunded)

64%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prutz / Serfaus at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prutz / Serfaus attack 2.20 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.53 + Prutz / Serfaus defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Prutz / Serfaus scores more

50%

level

22%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more

28%

Prutz / Serfaus at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Prutz / Serfaus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff