Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 5–4 Mayrhofen: Result & Stats

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

FT

5 – 4

Mayrhofen

9/17/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 9Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)53%

×Draw20%

Mayrhofen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)Expected goals in this matchMayrhofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.60

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

2.30

Mayrhofen

1.60

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

1.93

1.27

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.80

Mayrhofen

1.93

allows per match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

1.27

Mayrhofen

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Mayrhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) ↓

Mayrhofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or draw

73%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) or Mayrhofen

80%

Draw or Mayrhofen

47%

Winning margin

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+

32%

Mayrhofen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals

90%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals

67%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals

40%

Mayrhofen 1+ goals

80%

Mayrhofen 2+ goals

47%

Mayrhofen 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)

66%

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Mayrhofen away — creates 1.93, concedes 2.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.80 + Mayrhofen defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.30

Mayrhofen attack 1.93 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more

53%

level

20%

Mayrhofen scores more

27%

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wacker Innsbruck (Am) will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 5–4 Mayrhofen

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) beat Mayrhofen 5-4 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Innsbruck.

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) vs Mayrhofen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Landesliga - Tirol: Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 5–4 Mayrhofen