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Mayrhofen vs Wacker Innsbruck (Am) — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Mayrhofen
Mayrhofen
FT
2 – 1
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
5/13/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 24Alpenstadion Mayrhofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mayrhofen53%
×Draw20%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mayrhofen
2.33
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.63

Mayrhofen creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mayrhofen
2.87
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.53

allows per match

Mayrhofen
1.73
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
1.80

finishing

Mayrhofen+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck (Am)+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mayrhofen ↓

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mayrhofen or draw
73%
Mayrhofen or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
80%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck (Am)
47%

Winning margin

Mayrhofen wins by 2+
33%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mayrhofen 1+ goals
90%
Mayrhofen 2+ goals
67%
Mayrhofen 3+ goals
41%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 1+ goals
80%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2+ goals
48%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mayrhofen (draw refunded)
66%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mayrhofen at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mayrhofen attack 2.87 + Wacker Innsbruck (Am) defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.33

Wacker Innsbruck (Am) attack 1.53 + Mayrhofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mayrhofen scores more
53%
level
20%
Wacker Innsbruck (Am) scores more
27%

Mayrhofen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mayrhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mayrhofen vs Wacker Innsbruck (Am)

Mayrhofen beat Wacker Innsbruck (Am) 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Alpenstadion Mayrhofen in Mayrhofen.