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Wacker Burghausen vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
11/9/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Wacker Burghausen49%
×Draw24%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.72
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.21

Wacker Burghausen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 90 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.82
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.18

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.62

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Viktoria Aschaffenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
73%
Wacker Burghausen or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
76%
Draw or Viktoria Aschaffenburg
51%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
27%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
82%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
51%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
25%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
70%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
34%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
65%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.62 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.18 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
49%
level
24%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
27%

Wacker Burghausen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Wacker Burghausen and Viktoria Aschaffenburg drew 0-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.