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Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
11/25/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 22Stadion am Schönbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Viktoria Aschaffenburg39%
×Draw25%
Wacker Burghausen36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.48
Wacker Burghausen
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 87 away

creates per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.52
Wacker Burghausen
1.43

allows per match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg
1.36
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Viktoria Aschaffenburg+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viktoria Aschaffenburg ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw
64%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or Wacker Burghausen
75%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
61%

Winning margin

Viktoria Aschaffenburg wins by 2+
19%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1+ goals
77%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 2+ goals
43%
Viktoria Aschaffenburg 3+ goals
19%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
75%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
41%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Viktoria Aschaffenburg (draw refunded)
52%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 89 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viktoria Aschaffenburg attack 1.52 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.43 + Viktoria Aschaffenburg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Viktoria Aschaffenburg scores more
39%
level
25%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
36%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viktoria Aschaffenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viktoria Aschaffenburg vs Wacker Burghausen

Viktoria Aschaffenburg and Wacker Burghausen drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Schönbusch in Aschaffenburg.