Wacker Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Wacker Burghausen48%
Schwaben Augsburg28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wacker Burghausen creates 36% more chances
Season form · 88 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wacker Burghausen ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches
Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67
Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.20 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Wacker Burghausen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Wacker Burghausen substitutes
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Nürnberg II
Würzburger Kickers
SpVgg Unterhaching
Illertissen
Vilzing
Aubstadt
Eichstätt
Bayern München IIWacker Burghausen
Ansbach
Buchbach
MemmingenSchwaben Augsburg
Bayreuth
Greuther Fürth II
Augsburg II
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
Hankofen-Hailing
Kirchanschöring
ChamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Wacker Burghausen host Schwaben Augsburg on Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 12:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Bayern 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Schwaben Augsburg
Wacker Burghausen beat Schwaben Augsburg 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 26, 2025.
Goals: D. Ade (33').
The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.