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Schwaben Augsburg vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Schwaben Augsburg
Schwaben Augsburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
M. Heiss 31'
4/18/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 29Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Schwaben Augsburg34%
×Draw24%
Wacker Burghausen42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Schwaben Augsburg
1.48
Wacker Burghausen
1.67

Wacker Burghausen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 89 away

creates per match

Schwaben Augsburg
1.52
Wacker Burghausen
1.46

allows per match

Schwaben Augsburg
1.88
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schwaben Augsburg ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Schwaben Augsburg or draw
58%
Schwaben Augsburg or Wacker Burghausen
76%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
66%

Winning margin

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+
16%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals
77%
Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals
43%
Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals
19%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
81%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
50%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)
45%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schwaben Augsburg at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.52 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.46 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Schwaben Augsburg scores more
34%
level
24%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
42%

Wacker Burghausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. Heiss
Schwaben
Wacker
M. Ostrzolek
Manager: M. Ostrzolek
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner

Match Recap: Schwaben Augsburg vs Wacker Burghausen

Schwaben Augsburg beat Wacker Burghausen 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Heiss (31').

The match was played at Rosenaustadion in Augsburg.