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Wacker Burghausen vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Garching
Garching
10/24/2020Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 24Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Wacker Burghausen60%
×Draw19%
Garching20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
2.33
Garching
1.29

Wacker Burghausen creates 81% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 12 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.82
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Garching
2.83

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
80%
Wacker Burghausen or Garching
81%
Draw or Garching
40%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
38%
Garching wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
90%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
67%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
41%
Garching 1+ goals
72%
Garching 2+ goals
37%
Garching 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
75%
Garching (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.33

Garching attack 1.33 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
60%
level
19%
Garching scores more
20%

Wacker Burghausen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Garching

Wacker Burghausen beat Garching 5-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.