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Garching vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Garching
Garching
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
8/17/2019Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Stadion am See

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Garching24%
×Draw23%
Wacker Burghausen52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garching
1.13
Wacker Burghausen
1.77

Wacker Burghausen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 87 away

creates per match

Garching
0.80
Wacker Burghausen
1.43

allows per match

Garching
2.10
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Garching+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garching ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Garching or draw
48%
Garching or Wacker Burghausen
77%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
76%

Winning margin

Garching wins by 2+
9%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Garching 1+ goals
68%
Garching 2+ goals
31%
Garching 3+ goals
11%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
83%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
53%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Garching (draw refunded)
32%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garching at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garching attack 0.80 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.43 + Garching defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Garching scores more
24%
level
23%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
52%

Wacker Burghausen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Garching 0–2 Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen beat Garching 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion am See in Garching bei München.