Wacker Burghausen 2–2 Eintracht Bamberg

Wacker Burghausen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Bamberg

3/15/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 25Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wacker Burghausen58%

×Draw22%

Eintracht Bamberg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker BurghausenExpected goals in this matchEintracht Bamberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.03

Wacker Burghausen

1.91

Eintracht Bamberg

1.03

Wacker Burghausen creates 85% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

1.82

creates per match

0.82

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.82

Eintracht Bamberg

0.82

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.25

Eintracht Bamberg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw

80%

Wacker Burghausen or Eintracht Bamberg

78%

Draw or Eintracht Bamberg

42%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+

34%

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals

85%

Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals

57%

Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals

30%

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals

64%

Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals

28%

Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)

74%

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Eintracht Bamberg attack 0.82 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more

58%

level

22%

Eintracht Bamberg scores more

20%

Wacker Burghausen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff