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Eintracht Bamberg vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
9/2/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 8Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg28%
×Draw24%
Wacker Burghausen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.29
Wacker Burghausen
1.75

Wacker Burghausen creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 87 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
1.12
Wacker Burghausen
1.43

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.06
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
52%
Eintracht Bamberg or Wacker Burghausen
76%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
72%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
12%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
72%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
37%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
14%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
83%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
52%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
37%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.12 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.43 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
28%
level
24%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
48%

Wacker Burghausen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Eintracht Bamberg 0–4 Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen beat Eintracht Bamberg 4-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.