Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wacker Burghausen vs Bayreuth — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bayreuth
Bayreuth
V. Mares 31'
F. Markert 25'
4/10/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 28Wacker Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wacker Burghausen41%
×Draw24%
Bayreuth35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.58
Bayreuth
1.44

Wacker Burghausen creates 10% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.77
Bayreuth
1.64

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Bayreuth
1.39

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Bayreuth+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Bayreuth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
65%
Wacker Burghausen or Bayreuth
76%
Draw or Bayreuth
59%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
20%
Bayreuth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
79%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
47%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
21%
Bayreuth 1+ goals
76%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
42%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
54%
Bayreuth (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Bayreuth away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + Bayreuth defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Bayreuth attack 1.64 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
41%
level
24%
Bayreuth scores more
35%

Wacker Burghausen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
F. Markert
31'
V. Mares
Wacker
Bayreuth
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner
L. Kling
Manager: L. Kling

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Bayreuth

Wacker Burghausen and Bayreuth drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 10, 2026.

Goals: F. Markert (25'), V. Mares (31').

The match was played at Wacker Arena in Burghausen.