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Bayreuth vs Wacker Burghausen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Bayreuth
Bayreuth
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
F. Bachschmid 47', 13'
9/26/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 11Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bayreuth47%
×Draw24%
Wacker Burghausen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayreuth
1.69
Wacker Burghausen
1.29

Bayreuth creates 31% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bayreuth
1.93
Wacker Burghausen
1.46

allows per match

Bayreuth
1.11
Wacker Burghausen
1.45

finishing

Bayreuth+0.00on par
Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayreuth ↓

Wacker Burghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bayreuth or draw
71%
Bayreuth or Wacker Burghausen
76%
Draw or Wacker Burghausen
53%

Winning margin

Bayreuth wins by 2+
25%
Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bayreuth 1+ goals
82%
Bayreuth 2+ goals
50%
Bayreuth 3+ goals
24%
Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
72%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
37%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bayreuth (draw refunded)
61%
Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayreuth at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.45 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayreuth attack 1.93 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.46 + Bayreuth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bayreuth scores more
47%
level
24%
Wacker Burghausen scores more
29%

Bayreuth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bayreuth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
F. Bachschmid
47'
F. Bachschmid
Bayreuth
Wacker
L. Kling
Manager: L. Kling
M. Kostner
Manager: M. Kostner

Match Recap: Bayreuth vs Wacker Burghausen

Wacker Burghausen beat Bayreuth 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 26, 2025.

Goals: F. Bachschmid (13', 47').

The match was played at Hans-Walter-Wild-Stadion in Bayreuth.