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Wacker Burghausen vs Augsburg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2026

Wacker Burghausen
Wacker Burghausen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Augsburg II
Augsburg II
T. Diowo 82'
D. Ade 57'
T. Sanne 53'
8/1/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 2Wacker Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Wacker Burghausen46%
×Draw24%
Augsburg II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wacker Burghausen
1.73
Augsburg II
1.36

Wacker Burghausen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.77
Augsburg II
1.47

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen
1.25
Augsburg II
1.69

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par
Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Augsburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw
70%
Wacker Burghausen or Augsburg II
76%
Draw or Augsburg II
54%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+
25%
Augsburg II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals
82%
Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals
52%
Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals
25%
Augsburg II 1+ goals
74%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
39%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)
60%
Augsburg II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.69 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + Augsburg II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more
46%
level
24%
Augsburg II scores more
30%

Wacker Burghausen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
T. Sanne
57'
D. Ade
82'
T. Diowo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wacker Burghausen vs Augsburg II

Wacker Burghausen beat Augsburg II 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 1, 2025.

Goals: T. Sanne (53'), D. Ade (57'), T. Diowo (82').

The match was played at Wacker Arena in Burghausen.