Wacker Burghausen 4–1 Augsburg II: Result & Stats

Wacker Burghausen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Augsburg II

T. Winklbauer 88'

M. Lema 37', 5'

F. Bachschmid 22'

A. Japaur 57'

5/18/2024

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 34Wacker-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Wacker Burghausen46%

×Draw24%

Augsburg II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker BurghausenExpected goals in this matchAugsburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.36

Wacker Burghausen

1.73

Augsburg II

1.36

Wacker Burghausen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 88 away

1.77

creates per match

1.47

1.25

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.77

Augsburg II

1.47

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.25

Augsburg II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Augsburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Augsburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw

70%

Wacker Burghausen or Augsburg II

76%

Draw or Augsburg II

54%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+

25%

Augsburg II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals

82%

Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals

52%

Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals

25%

Augsburg II 1+ goals

74%

Augsburg II 2+ goals

39%

Augsburg II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)

60%

Augsburg II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.25 · 88 matches

Augsburg II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.69 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.77 + Augsburg II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.73

Augsburg II attack 1.47 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more

46%

level

24%

Augsburg II scores more

30%

Wacker Burghausen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

22'

29'

37'

46'

S. Mühlbauer← D. Haimerl

57'

A. Japaur

59'

A. Fambo← A. Spitzer

62'

T. Duxner← S. Malinowski

65'

T. Winklbauer← A. Bošnjak

70'

K. Sigl← A. Andreichyk

77'

T. Horn← H. Rathgeber

84'

A. Pavlović← M. Lema

84'

F. Gebert← J. Cabrera

88'

T. Winklbauer

Wacker

Augsburg

12

Jäger

5

▼

13

27

2

17

8

28

10

▼

Cabrera

20

▼

Rathgeber

7

▼

Ivelj

1

Schöller

31

Schulz

17

▼

15

4

5

9

⚽2

▼

Lema

22

▼

Andreichy

6

⚽

Bachschmi

33

▼

Bošnjak

26

▼

Malinowsk

Manager: R. Berg

59'▲A. Fambo←▼A. Spitzer

62'▲T. Duxner←▼S. Malinowski

65'▲T. Winklbauer←▼A. Bošnjak

70'▲K. Sigl←▼A. Andreichyk

84'▲A. Pavlović←▼M. Lema

Wacker Burghausen substitutes

3Fambo23Duxner21Winklbauer10Sigl24Pavlović27Salispahic37Broghammer

Manager: T. Strobl

29'▲A. Japaur←▼R. Ivelj

46'▲S. Mühlbauer←▼D. Haimerl

77'▲T. Horn←▼H. Rathgeber

84'▲F. Gebert←▼J. Cabrera

Augsburg II substitutes

11Japaur25Mühlbauer18Horn23Gebert9Ehrlich19Aigner22Sander15Keereerom29Rachinger

Regionalliga - Bayern: Wacker Burghausen 4–1 Augsburg II

Wacker Burghausen beat Augsburg II 4-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on May 18, 2024.

Goals: M. Lema (5', 37'), F. Bachschmid (22'), A. Japaur (57'), T. Winklbauer (88').

The match was played at Wacker-Arena in Burghausen.

Wacker Burghausen vs Augsburg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Regionalliga - Bayern: Wacker Burghausen 4–1 Augsburg II