Wacker Burghausen 3–0 Ansbach: Result & Stats

Wacker Burghausen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ansbach

5/9/2026

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 33Wacker Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Wacker Burghausen58%

×Draw21%

Ansbach22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wacker BurghausenExpected goals in this matchAnsbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.25

Wacker Burghausen

2.16

Ansbach

1.25

Wacker Burghausen creates 73% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 57 away

1.82

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.82

Ansbach

1.25

allows per match

Wacker Burghausen

1.25

Ansbach

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Ansbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wacker Burghausen ↓

Ansbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wacker Burghausen or draw

78%

Wacker Burghausen or Ansbach

79%

Draw or Ansbach

42%

Winning margin

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+

35%

Ansbach wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals

88%

Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals

63%

Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals

36%

Ansbach 1+ goals

71%

Ansbach 2+ goals

36%

Ansbach 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)

73%

Ansbach (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wacker Burghausen at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Ansbach away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.82 + Ansbach defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.16

Ansbach attack 1.25 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wacker Burghausen scores more

58%

level

21%

Ansbach scores more

22%

Wacker Burghausen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wacker Burghausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff