Ansbach 2–0 Wacker Burghausen: Result & Stats

Ansbach

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wacker Burghausen

8/11/2023

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4Xaver-Bertsch-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ansbach43%

×Draw25%

Wacker Burghausen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AnsbachExpected goals in this matchWacker Burghausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.33

Ansbach

1.58

Wacker Burghausen

1.33

Ansbach creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 87 away

1.72

creates per match

1.43

1.23

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ansbach

1.72

Wacker Burghausen

1.43

allows per match

Ansbach

1.23

Wacker Burghausen

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ansbach+0.00on par

Wacker Burghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansbach ↓

Wacker Burghausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ansbach or draw

68%

Ansbach or Wacker Burghausen

75%

Draw or Wacker Burghausen

57%

Winning margin

Ansbach wins by 2+

22%

Wacker Burghausen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ansbach 1+ goals

79%

Ansbach 2+ goals

47%

Ansbach 3+ goals

21%

Wacker Burghausen 1+ goals

74%

Wacker Burghausen 2+ goals

38%

Wacker Burghausen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ansbach (draw refunded)

57%

Wacker Burghausen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansbach at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Wacker Burghausen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansbach attack 1.72 + Wacker Burghausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wacker Burghausen attack 1.43 + Ansbach defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ansbach scores more

43%

level

25%

Wacker Burghausen scores more

32%

Ansbach at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ansbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff