Waalwijk 1–1 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Waalwijk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vitesse

J. Altena 11'

M. Schikora 89'

9/16/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 6Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Waalwijk45%

×Draw23%

Vitesse32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.52

Waalwijk

1.83

Vitesse

1.52

Waalwijk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 38 away

1.85

creates per match

1.55

1.49

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.85

Vitesse

1.55

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.49

Vitesse

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

68%

Waalwijk or Vitesse

77%

Draw or Vitesse

55%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

Vitesse wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

84%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

54%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

28%

Vitesse 1+ goals

78%

Vitesse 2+ goals

45%

Vitesse 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

58%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.49 · 41 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.85 + Vitesse defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vitesse attack 1.55 + Waalwijk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Waalwijk scores more

45%

level

23%

Vitesse scores more

32%

Waalwijk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Altena

Waalwijk · D

8.3

Match Events

11'

28'

35'

36'

45'

Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz

46'

R. van der Venne← O. Panneflek

46'

R. Kuijpers← D. Cleonise

48'

Elias Huth

63'

Y. Ranon← A. Moustafa

63'

X. Thenu← A. Buttner

72'

N. Zonneveld← D. Hoogewerf

74'

F. Al Mazyani← J. Uneken

85'

Daniel van Kaam

87'

M. Rodrigues← A. Tahaui

87'

M. Marschalk← R. Schwarz

88'

L. Postma←

89'

M. Schikora↳ N. Zonneveld

90+2'

Richard van der Venne

90'

T. van der Leij← D. van Kaam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkVitesse

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots3

4Corners2

14Fouls22

Shots

11Total Shots3

4On Target2

4Off Target0

3Blocked1

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box0

Passing

48%Possession52%

417Total Passes455

348Accurate Passes386

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls22

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 1–1 Vitesse

Waalwijk and Vitesse drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 16, 2025.

Goals: J. Altena (11'), M. Schikora (89').

Vitesse controlled possession (52%) and registered 3 shots to 11.

The match was played at Mandemakers Stadion in Waalwijk.

Waalwijk vs Vitesse — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Waalwijk 1–1 Vitesse