Vitesse 0–2 Waalwijk: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Vitesse

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Waalwijk

R. Margaret 90+6'

Y. Oukili 39'

9/16/2023

Eredivisie · Round 5GelreDome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Vitesse52%

×Draw23%

Waalwijk25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitesseExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.21

Vitesse

1.85

Waalwijk

1.21

Vitesse creates 53% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 98 away

1.57

creates per match

1.04

1.39

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Vitesse

1.57

Waalwijk

1.04

allows per match

Vitesse

1.39

Waalwijk

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitesse+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitesse ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Vitesse or draw

75%

Vitesse or Waalwijk

77%

Draw or Waalwijk

48%

Winning margin

Vitesse wins by 2+

29%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vitesse 1+ goals

84%

Vitesse 2+ goals

55%

Vitesse 3+ goals

28%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

70%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

34%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vitesse (draw refunded)

68%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitesse at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.39 · 101 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitesse attack 1.57 + Waalwijk defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Waalwijk attack 1.04 + Vitesse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitesse scores more

52%

level

23%

Waalwijk scores more

25%

Vitesse at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitesse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Room

Vitesse · G

7.7

Match Events

39'

Y. Oukili↳ G. Roemeratoe

44'

Godfried Roemeratoe

51'

K. Felida← G. Roemeratoe

59'

Million ManhoefCard upgrade

60'

Million Manhoef

61'

C. Lokesa← Z. Bakkali

61'

R. Margaret← D. Cleonise

67'

Yassin Oukili

69'

R. Hendriks← D. Oroz

69'

F. Fofana← S. Hamulić

72'

Amine Boutrah

77'

G. de Regt← C. Arcus

78'

Richonell Margaret

80'

K. Kozłowski← M. Pinto

82'

J. Gaari← R. Niemeijer

82'

F. Stevanović← Y. Oukili

85'

Dario Van Den Buijs

89'

Etienne Vaessen

90+6'

R. Margaret↳ A. Meijers

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VitesseWaalwijk

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots18

0.71Expected Goals (xG)2.00

8Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots18

2On Target9

12Off Target6

2Blocked3

10Inside Box11

6Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

483Total Passes368

411Accurate Passes295

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Vitesse vs Waalwijk

Waalwijk beat Vitesse 2-0 in Eredivisie on September 16, 2023.

Goals: Y. Oukili (39'), R. Margaret (90+6').

Vitesse controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at GelreDome in Arnhem.

Vitesse vs Waalwijk — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Vitesse vs Waalwijk